Hello everyone!
The reviews of the past year in the countries where we operate and assist our clients show real estate price increases in every one of them. With interest rates in Israel still high and real estate prices not falling (do not be swayed by the press releases - there is no real price decline), Israeli investors continue to look for investment opportunities overseas.
This month we would like to draw your attention to:
A. A 2025 real estate review in Greece.
B. A 2025 real estate review in Romania.
C. A 2025 real estate review in Bulgaria.
D. A sharp drop in the number of real estate transactions in Romania in January 2026.
E. An economic forecast for 2026.
Adv. Ilan Leibovitch and the office team
Greece
2025 review: the Greek real estate market keeps rising - moderate growth alongside price moderation and expanding demand
In 2025 the real estate market in Greece continued to show a consistent rise in apartment prices, although the pace of growth moderated compared with previous years. Official data from the Bank of Greece indicate an average annual rise in real estate prices of about 7.7% in the third quarter of the year, after years of double-digit growth in earlier years.
2025 real estate price data (Bank of Greece data):
- An average annual rise of about 7.7% in apartment prices in Q3/2025 relative to the previous year.
- Prices of new apartments rose by about 6.6% compared with the previous year, while older apartments rose by about 8.5%.
- In northern Greece and Thessaloniki a relatively high rise of up to about 9.6% in apartment prices was recorded, while in Athens prices rose by about 6.6%.
These data show that despite a slight slowdown in the pace of price increases compared with 2024 (when an average rise of over 8.5%-9% was recorded according to revised data), the real estate market in Greece remained positive and very active in the past year as well.
Significant market trends in 2025:
- The move from a market of rapid rises to a stage of balanced growth: the pace of price increases stands at a steady but more moderate rate than in 2021-2023, which makes the market more accessible to sophisticated investment opportunities.
- New apartments are selling at a higher rate of increase than existing apartment prices, which indicates high demand for new projects and for renovation investments.
- Demand in the urban market, and especially in Thessaloniki and provincial areas, is receiving growing attention from local and international investors.
The connection to regulation and policy:
The macroeconomic data also show the impact of changes in various regulations on the short-term and long-term rental market, as well as some reduction in Golden Visa activity alongside rising housing prices that increase long-term demand, and therefore also affect the structure of investments in the market.
Real estate price profile in Athens at the end of 2025:
- In Athens and the luxury suburbs (the Athens Riviera) prices on average range from about €4,500 to €8,000 per sq.m. for high-standard properties and in practice premium locations.
- According to various sources, in the Athens district the average price stood at about €2,500-€3,500 per sq.m. at the end of 2025, while luxury areas in the south of the city still command a higher premium.
- Price index data by market hub indicate that in Q3/2025, the asking price in leading areas such as Athens South reached around about €4,091 per sq.m., with a significant annual rise also recorded in other parts of the metropolitan area.
Real estate price profile in Thessaloniki at the end of 2025:
- According to various market sources, Thessaloniki showed relatively lower price figures than Athens, with the city average climbing to about €2,000-€3,000 per sq.m. at the end of 2025.
- Market index data for Q3/2025 show that Thessaloniki recorded on average about €2,625 per sq.m. in marketing prices and an online survey, with an annual rise of around +9.3% relative to the preceding year.
- Other data markets stress that houses and apartments in the northern city are priced at around about €2,300-€3,000 per sq.m. at the end of 2025, according to average market ranges and supply-demand data.
What does the price trend in the two cities mean for investors?
The data paint a clear picture of price gaps between Athens and Thessaloniki already at the end of 2025 - Athens maintains a relatively high price per sq.m., especially in the luxury areas and the northern and southern suburbs, while Thessaloniki remains an excellent investment destination with a relatively more accessible entry price but still with potential for capital gains and rental growth.
From the writer's desk:
2025 confirmed that the Greek real estate market is in a stage of maturity and steady growth, with a consistent rise in property prices and data that point to strong demand over time. Investors who exploit in-depth knowledge of the data and focus on strategic areas will be able to enjoy stable returns, even as the market settles from a stage of rapid price increases into a stage of steady, moderate expansion.
Our media coverage
Bucharest's entry into PwC's prestigious ranking is no coincidence, but the result of a long process of maturation. The ranking reflects the city's transition from a speculative market to a mature one.
Bucharest is no longer playing “cheap versus expensive.” It is going through a phase, from an emerging market to a market that understands branding, experience and status.
The vacation got more expensive - not because of the flight
Tourist taxes in major European cities are jumping in 2026 and making a vacation thousands of shekels more expensive for a family, beyond the flight and the hotel.
Romania
Romania real estate prices summary 2025
In 2025 the Romanian real estate market continued to show a steady and clear rise in housing prices per sq.m., according to data from the Imobiliare.ro website.
According to the index published by Imobiliare.ro in January 2026, the average price per sq.m. in a comparison of apartment listings across Romania stood at about 1,974 euros, an increase of about 13.5% relative to the corresponding month of the previous year (January 2025).
Broader data presented in the 2025 annual review show that the price rise did not appear only as a single-digit figure, but also in significant price gaps between cities and peripheries: in luxury neighborhoods in Bucharest the asking price can reach almost 5,000 euros per sq.m., while in less expensive areas a price of around about 1,100 euros per sq.m. is still found.
Further data from Imobiliare.ro show that the average rise in asking prices in 2025 reached about 14%, which illustrates growing demand in the local market and especially among buyers who prefer apartments in central locations or close to transport and urban services.
Market data are also presented by city:
The average price in December 2025 in Cluj-Napoca was about 3,235 euros per sq.m., in Bucharest around 2,204 euros per sq.m., in Brașov about 2,228 euros per sq.m. and in Constanța around 1,943 euros per sq.m., all of which indicate relatively high price levels in Romania's main cities.
These data confirm that in 2025 the housing market in Romania continues the upward trend of recent years, even after adjusting for variations in the prices of new versus older projects.
Romania closes 2025: the deficit is lower than feared, but inflation remains around 10%, and the markets remain on edge
Romania closed 2025 with a (cash) budget deficit lower than the pessimistic expectations that emerged during the year, but still very high on a European scale. According to the Romanian Ministry of Finance publication as covered in the economic media, the deficit totaled RON 146.03 billion, which is 7.65% of GDP in 2025, down from 8.67% in 2024.
This figure is perceived as “better than expected” mainly because during 2025 there was talk of a risk of a sharper deviation, and the European Union followed Romania closely under the excessive deficit procedure. At the same time, the European Commission's forecast (November 2025) estimated a deficit of 8.4% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026, so a close at 7.65% marks a correction - but not a solution.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic concern has not disappeared: data from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics (INS) show that December 2025 inflation (annual, December against December) stood at 9.69% - that is, “close to 10%” is an accurate description. At the same time, average inflation for the whole of 2025 stood at 7.32%.
The real estate market in Romania since the start of 2026: a sharp drop in the number of transactions alongside changing market conditions
The Romanian real estate market opened 2026 with a significant drop in the number of transactions completed in January, a figure that indicates a period of recovery and adjustment not seen in recent years. According to official ANCPI data, in January 2026 24,598 properties in private ownership were sold across the country, a decrease of 31,605 transactions compared with December 2025. The decline was also recorded in comparison with January 2025, with 6,236 fewer transactions relative to the corresponding period of the previous year.
This figure reflects a one-time slowdown in housing transactions at the start of the year, which has several main explanations according to experts in Romania:
The decline in the number of transactions is attributed partly to the natural seasonality of January, traditionally a weak month for real estate transaction activity, but also to growing economic caution among buyers, who prefer to reassess market conditions, financing costs and property pricing before making significant purchase decisions.
The economic media in Romania also carry cautious interpretations linking part of the decline in activity in January 2026 to the entry into force of the Nordis law last December. According to industry sources, the new requirements in off-plan apartment transactions, including limits on advance payments, early registration and enhanced documentation obligations, created an adjustment period for both developers and buyers. However, most commentators stress that this is a secondary factor, alongside the other factors already noted here, and not a sole or dominant reason for the drop in the number of transactions.
This trend is consistent with broader commentary and analysis in the economic media in Romania that speak of a “cooling/adjustment phase in the real estate market” following price rises in recent years, less stable financing conditions and changes in housing buyers' preferences.
What the markets and analysts say:
Economic commentators in Romania note that the market stands at a balance point between demand and the high costs of buying and financing properties, which temporarily slows transaction activity but does not necessarily indicate lasting stagnation.
Moreover, professional publications in Romania note that despite the drop in the number of transactions, prices did not fall sharply, and even in the last quarters of 2025 the price level remained stable and even relatively high, owing to a supply shortage and the support of structural demand in the market.
From the writer's desk:
What this means for real estate investors in 2026:
- A deficit lower than feared slightly reduces the “panic” pressure, but Romania will still be required to exercise fiscal discipline and deepen tax collection, which may be reflected in budget measures during 2026.
- Inflation around 10% at the end of 2025 continues to sustain a cautious sentiment: it affects local purchasing power, interest rate policy, and the pricing of rent/indexation, so investors need to build safety margins into cash-flow scenarios.
- The practical result for the real estate market: a “mixed” macro environment - a slightly better deficit figure supports stability, but high inflation keeps a risk premium and suspicion among banks/buyers, especially in leveraged transactions.
- The drop in the number of transactions at the start of 2026 may point to a period of ‘adjustment’ in the market, in which buyers and investors reassess the economic viability of larger transactions.
- A stable price figure shows that the housing market is still valued more by value at cost than by the number of transactions, which allows investors to focus on specific properties with high return potential.
Bulgaria
The real estate market in Bulgaria in January 2026: the new euro leads to stability and moderate price growth
Bulgaria officially became the 21st member of the eurozone from January 1, 2026, with the conversion rate set at 1 euro = 1.95583 leva, a move that ended a period of commitment to prepare for entry into the eurozone since the 1990s and created an economically more mature real estate market.
Official Eurostat data indicate that at the end of 2025, there was an annual rise in apartment prices in Bulgaria of about 15.4% in the third quarter of the year, the highest rise among all European Union countries.
How does the euro affect real estate prices at the start of 2026?
With the adoption of the euro, the Bulgarian real estate market enters a new stage in which financial stability and reduced currency risks encourage buying and investment activity. Market analysts estimate that a decline in the pace of “panic” investors seen in 2024-2025 will lead to a stage of moderate but consistent growth in apartment prices in early 2026 as well.
According to market studies and early forecasts:
- In Sofia, after the significant rises in 2025, apartment prices will stabilize at around €2,487 per sq.m. at the start of 2026, with a further expected rise this year of about 8-12% in the urban market.
- Other major cities such as Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas also show significant apartment price growth in 2025 and await a continued trend of price increases, although at a more moderate pace compared with the peak of recent years.
Pressure and encouragement factors in real estate prices
The move to the euro reduces currency risks and financing costs, and allows Bulgarians and foreign investors easier access to credit and real estate investments. At the same time, some investors and buyers become more cautious immediately after the conversion, which moderates the pace of growth that was initially identified as fragile in the market.
- With the euro, the expectation is that more foreign investors will come to Bulgaria out of considerations of stability and financial transparency.
- The most prominent growth is still influenced by shortages in the supply of quality apartments in the centers of large cities, which continues to support price growth.
- Financing advantages in the form of relatively low mortgage interest rates in the eurozone will help preserve demand in 2026 as well.
From the writer's desk:
The start of 2026 positions the Bulgarian market as a real estate destination with stable potential for continued moderate growth, against the background of the move to the euro and the reduction of currency risks over the long term. Although the data do not point to an unusual “jump” in prices at the end of 2025, the cumulative picture shows that Bulgaria is ready for a new stage of market maturation, with an expectation of target price increases of about 5-10% in the coming year if the preconditions of financing and demand remain positive.
2026 forecast for four target economies: Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus
For 2026 a clear momentum ranking emerges: Cyprus and Greece at steady growth of around 2%-3% (depending on the source), Bulgaria with higher growth potential but dependent on local demand and investment, and Romania with relatively low growth because of budget constraints and higher inflation. What they all have in common is the centrality of European financing/investment, and sensitivity to the cost of credit and to the state of local consumption in 2026.
Romania: low growth under a tight fiscal regime, inflation still “sticky”
The European Commission estimates that in 2026 Romania will remain at a low growth rate, around 1.1%, the main reason being the need for fiscal consolidation that moderates private and public consumption, alongside some support from investment (including European funding) and improved net exports.
The IMF presents a slightly higher growth forecast for Romania in 2026: 1.4%, but with a relatively high forecast inflation of 6.7% (annual change in the consumer price index).
The EBRD (in its Transition Report 2025-26) speaks of a “modest” recovery in 2026 to about 1.6% growth, conditional on falling inflation, accelerated implementation of investments from the recovery plan (RRP) and improved external demand.
Bulgaria: a higher growth rate than the region, moderating inflation
The European Commission forecasts growth of 2.7% in 2026, with moderation later compared with a higher rate in the past, as domestic demand is expected to cool with a slowdown in wage growth and social transfers.
The IMF forecasts growth of 3.1% for Bulgaria in 2026 and inflation of 3.4%.
The EBRD forecasts growth of 2.6% in 2026, and stresses that the forecast relies on continued public investment and private consumption, with potential additional support from trade if European financial integration processes deepen.
Greece: steady growth of around 2%, investments backed by Europe, converging inflation
The European Commission estimates growth of 2.2% in 2026, driven by consumption and investment supported by Union funds (including the RRF), with moderation later as the funds' effect weakens.
The IMF presents a growth forecast of 2.0% in 2026 and inflation of 2.5%.
The EBRD is on a similar line: growth of 2.1% in 2026, with the engines being private consumption and RRF-led investment, and tourism continuing to be a significant “leg” in the services balance.
In addition, the Hellenic Fiscal Council in Greece endorsed a government forecast for growth of 2.4% in 2026 (that is, slightly more optimistic than the international bodies).
Cyprus: growth above 2.5% according to the Union and the IMF, and some analysts see even around 3%+
The European Commission estimates that Cyprus will moderate to a growth rate of 2.6% in 2026 (after a stronger 2025), with the engine remaining private consumption, but with a slowdown in the growth of real income and a slowdown in the intake of foreign workers that supports consumption.
The IMF forecasts growth of 2.8% for Cyprus in 2026 and relatively low inflation of 1.3%.
By contrast, local and institutional analysts present a more optimistic tone: the Economics Research Centre at the University of Cyprus (ERC) forecasts 3.5% growth in 2026, and a similar rate in 2027 as well.
From the writer's desk:
What this means in practice:
- Romania enters 2026 with a macro “price” of budgetary stability at the expense of economic acceleration. For investors this translates into greater sensitivity to interest rates, taxation and local consumption performance, and at the same time selective opportunities around infrastructure/urbanization investments in strong cities.
- Bulgaria enters 2026 with growth momentum better than some of its neighbors, but the central story for investors is the quality of demand (local versus external), the pace of credit, and whether the labor market will continue to feed consumption without reigniting inflation.
- Greece looks like a “stable story” for 2026 relative to the region, but the difference between 2.0% and 2.4% matters: it depends on the ability to turn Europe-financed investments into real productivity (and not just a flow of demand), and on maintaining tourism performance even in a moderating European environment.
- In Cyprus the gap between the “Union/IMF” forecast and optimistic local forecasts is a point for investors to monitor. If growth indeed stays in the 3%+ range, this directly affects real estate demand (residential, commercial, tourism), but if it converges to 2.5%-2.8% this is still a good environment, only with less of a tailwind.
Accurate as of the issue date. Laws, tax rates and procedures change; check the current position before any decision.
Translated from the Hebrew original. עברית